TY - JOUR
T1 - Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong
T2 - Impact of public health interventions
AU - Riley, Steven
AU - Fraser, Christophe
AU - Donnelly, Christl A.
AU - Ghani, Azra C.
AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
AU - Hedley, Anthony J.
AU - Leung, Gabriel M.
AU - Ho, Lai Ming
AU - Lam, Tai Hing
AU - Thach, Thuan Q.
AU - Chau, Patsy
AU - Chan, King Pan
AU - Lo, Su Vui
AU - Leung, Pak Yin
AU - Tsang, Thomas
AU - Ho, William
AU - Lee, Koon Hung
AU - Lau, Edith M.C.
AU - Ferguson, Neil M.
AU - Anderson, Roy M.
PY - 2003/6/20
Y1 - 2003/6/20
N2 - We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
AB - We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters - initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs) - and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSES, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.1086478
DO - 10.1126/science.1086478
M3 - Article
C2 - 12766206
AN - SCOPUS:12444260277
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 300
SP - 1961
EP - 1966
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 5627
ER -