Sequential algorithm to stratify liver fibrosis risk in overweight/obese metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease

Background: Non-diabetic overweight/obese metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents the largest subgroup with heterogeneous liver fibrosis risk. Metabolic dysfunction promotes liver fibrosis. Here, we investigated whether incorporating additional metabolic risk factors into clinical evaluation improved liver fibrosis risk stratification among individuals with non-diabetic overweight/obese MAFLD. Materials and methods: Comprehensive metabolic evaluation including 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test was performed in over 1000 participants from the New Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study (HK-NCRISPS), a contemporary population-based study of HK Chinese. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis were evaluated based on controlled attenuation parameter and liver stiffness (LS) measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography, respectively. Clinically significant liver fibrosis was defined as LS ≥8.0 kPa. Our findings were validated in an independent pooled cohort comprising individuals with obesity and/or polycystic ovarian syndrome. Results: Of the 1020 recruited community-dwelling individuals, 312 (30.6%) had non-diabetic overweight/obese MAFLD. Among them, 6.4% had LS ≥8.0 kPa. In multivariable stepwise logistic regression analysis, abnormal serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (OR 7.95, p<0.001) and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) ≥2.5 (OR 5.01, p=0.008) were independently associated with LS ≥8.0 kPa, in a model also consisting of other metabolic risk factors including central adiposity, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and prediabetes. A sequential screening algorithm using abnormal AST, followed by elevated HOMA-IR, was developed to identify individuals with LS ≥8.0 kPa, and externally validated with satisfactory sensitivity (>80%) and negative predictive value (>90%). Conclusion: A sequential algorithm incorporating AST and HOMA-IR levels improves fibrosis risk stratification among non-diabetic overweight/obese MAFLD individuals.